Chinese EV imports into Canada

Statistics Canada categorises this trade lane under NAPCS code 81, “Passenger cars and light trucks”. That bundle includes BEVs, PHEVs, and ICE vehicles together — but Tesla Model Y built in Shanghai dominates Chinese-origin passenger-vehicle exports to Canada, so the series tracks Chinese EV imports closely in practice.

Vehicles actually imported under the quota

The figures above are customs value from Statistics Canada, and the vehicle counts derived from them are estimates. Global Affairs Canada separately publishes how much of the import quota has been used, which is a direct count of vehicles from permit data. Both are shown because they measure different things and do not reconcile.

That value split matters for the estimate above: volume declared at or below $35,000 sits well under the $42,500 per-vehicle figure used to convert value into a vehicle count. See “How we estimate vehicle counts” below.

Tariff timeline

• Before October 2024: standard MFN tariff. 2023 imports peaked around $2.2B / ~44,400 vehicles, mostly Tesla Model Y from Shanghai.
• October 2024: Canada imposed a 100% surtax on Chinese EVs in line with US policy. Q4 2024 imports dropped roughly 92%.
• March 1, 2026: The 100% surtax was replaced by a country-specific quota of 49,000 vehicles per year at the 6.1% most-favoured-nation rate, split into two six-month periods. The 1st Period (March 1 – August 31, 2026) allowed 24,500 vehicles, issued first-come, first-served.
• September 1, 2026: The 2nd Period opens under Notice 1168, published August 29, 2026. It allows 24,500 vehicles plus any volume left unused from the 1st Period, still first-come, first-served. Global Affairs Canada consulted in April 2026 on a longer-term allocation method; the notice keeps the current mechanism “until further notice”.

Which Chinese brands and models are coming to Canada →

How we estimate vehicle counts

StatCan publishes value (CAD) for this lane, not units. We back-estimate vehicles by dividing the monthly value by an assumed $42,500 CAD declared customs value per vehicle, anchored to 2024 reporting on Tesla’s Shanghai-to-Canada Model Y shipments — the dominant share of NAPCS 81 imports from China. Declared customs value is what the importer reports to CBSA on entry, which is materially lower than the retail MSRP a buyer eventually pays. Treat the vehicle count as an estimate with roughly ±15% error, not an exact figure; we revisit the assumed value annually as the import mix shifts.

One caveat on the 2026 figures. That $42,500 anchor is a Model Y number, and the vehicles actually arriving are not all Model Ys. About half the volume under the quota is declared at or below $35,000 — see the utilization figures above, which report that split directly. Dividing by $42,500 therefore understates the vehicle count for 2026, so treat the recent months as a floor.

Methodology

Source: Statistics Canada Table 12-10-0178-01 (Canadian international merchandise trade for imports by country of origin and country of export, customs-based, monthly). Monthly granularity with a ~2-month release lag (April 2026 data typically lands in mid-June 2026). Our worker re-pulls the latest 24 months from the StatCan WDS API every day at 09:00 ET; revisions to prior months are picked up automatically.

The quota utilization figures come from a second source on a separate schedule: Global Affairs Canada’s EICS report, re-pulled daily at 16:00 ET, after GAC refreshes it during the business day. It is a count of permits issued, not customs value, so the two series are shown separately and are not combined — for June 2026, StatCan reports roughly $219M of value while EICS reports 621 vehicles under the quota.